Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation
Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the...
| Authors: | ; ; ; |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Publication date: | 2017 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repository: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Language: | English |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/103467 |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/103467 https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Volcanic activity prediction Volcanic ash On-line coupling Transport-meteorological modeling Operational forecast NWPM TTDM Cordón Caulle Activitat volcànica--Previsió Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdica |
| _version_ | 1878742456778883072 |
|---|---|
| author | Marti, Alejandro |
| author2 | Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366 Jorba, Oriol Janjic, Zavisa |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_browse | Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366 Janjic, Zavisa Jorba, Oriol Marti, Alejandro |
| author_facet | Marti, Alejandro Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366 Jorba, Oriol Janjic, Zavisa |
| author_role | author |
| collection | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| description | Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | ES_f6458efb130d7c8cd7571f7d55eaaddd |
| institution | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| instname_str | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | ES |
| network_name_str | España |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/103467 |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | European Geosciences Union (EGU) |
| publisherStr | European Geosciences Union (EGU) |
| reponame_str | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| spelling | Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation Marti, Alejandro Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366 Jorba, Oriol Janjic, Zavisa Volcanic activity prediction Volcanic ash On-line coupling Transport-meteorological modeling Operational forecast NWPM TTDM Cordón Caulle Activitat volcànica--Previsió Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdica Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation. The research leading to these results has received funding from the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the project NEMOH (REA grant agreement no. 289976). O. Jorba was partially funded by grant CGL2013- 46736 of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain. We are extremely grateful to the Argentinian National Meteorological Service for sharing data to validate this work; in particular we thank M.S. Osores for providing valuable insights into the eruption dynamics. Numerical simulations were performed at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center with the MareNostrum Supercomputer using 512 and 256 - 8x4 GB DDR3-1600 DIMMS (2GB/core) Intel Sandy Bridge processors, iDataPlex Compute Racks, a Linux Operating System, and an InfiniBand interconnection. Peer Reviewed European Geosciences Union (EGU) https://hdl.handle.net/2117/103467 https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017 |
| spellingShingle | Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation Marti, Alejandro Volcanic activity prediction Volcanic ash On-line coupling Transport-meteorological modeling Operational forecast NWPM TTDM Cordón Caulle Activitat volcànica--Previsió Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdica |
| title | Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
| title_full | Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
| title_fullStr | Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
| title_short | Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
| title_sort | Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation |
| topic | Volcanic activity prediction Volcanic ash On-line coupling Transport-meteorological modeling Operational forecast NWPM TTDM Cordón Caulle Activitat volcànica--Previsió Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdica |
| topic_facet | Volcanic activity prediction Volcanic ash On-line coupling Transport-meteorological modeling Operational forecast NWPM TTDM Cordón Caulle Activitat volcànica--Previsió Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria biomèdica |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/103467 https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017 |