Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance
A simple yet accurate photovoltaic (PV) performance curve as a function of satellite-based solar irradiation is necessary to develop a PV power forecasting model that can cover all of South Korea, where more than 35,000 PV power plants are currently in operation. In order to express the nonlinear po...
| Authors: | ; ; ; |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Status: | Published version |
| Publication date: | 2020 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Universitat de Lleida (UdL) |
| Repository: | Repositori Obert UdL |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/69859 |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/en13040781 http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/69859 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Photovoltaic system performance Power output prediction Satellite-derived global horizontal irradiance |
| _version_ | 1878740949754970112 |
|---|---|
| author | Vilanova, Alba |
| author2 | Kim, Bo-Young Kim, Chang Ki Kim, Hyun-Goo |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_browse | Kim, Bo-Young Kim, Chang Ki Kim, Hyun-Goo Vilanova, Alba |
| author_facet | Vilanova, Alba Kim, Bo-Young Kim, Chang Ki Kim, Hyun-Goo |
| author_role | author |
| collection | Repositori Obert UdL |
| description | A simple yet accurate photovoltaic (PV) performance curve as a function of satellite-based solar irradiation is necessary to develop a PV power forecasting model that can cover all of South Korea, where more than 35,000 PV power plants are currently in operation. In order to express the nonlinear power output of the PV module with respect to the hourly global horizontal irradiance derived from satellite images, this study employed the Gompertz model, which is composed of three parameters and the sigmoid equation. The nonphysical behavior of the Gompertz model within the low solar irradiation range was corrected by combining a linear equation with the same gradient at the conjoint point. The overall fitness of Linear-Gompertz regression to the 242 PV power plants representing the country was R2 = 0.85 and nRMSE = 0.09. The Gompertz model coefficients showed normal distributions and equivariance of standard deviations of less than 15% by year and by season. Therefore, it can be conjectured that the Linear-Gompertz model represents the whole country’s PV system performance curve. In addition, the Gompertz coefficient C, which controls the growth rate of the curve, showed a strong correlation with the capacity factor, such that the regression equation for the capacity factor could be derived as a function of the three Gompertz model coefficients with a fitness of R2 = 0.88. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | ES_dc50a962f0bf15c76cf83ead1cfd4e21 |
| institution | Universitat de Lleida (UdL) |
| instname_str | Universitat de Lleida (UdL) |
| network_acronym_str | ES |
| network_name_str | España |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/69859 |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | MDPI |
| publisherStr | MDPI |
| reponame_str | Repositori Obert UdL |
| spelling | Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance Vilanova, Alba Kim, Bo-Young Kim, Chang Ki Kim, Hyun-Goo Photovoltaic system performance Power output prediction Satellite-derived global horizontal irradiance A simple yet accurate photovoltaic (PV) performance curve as a function of satellite-based solar irradiation is necessary to develop a PV power forecasting model that can cover all of South Korea, where more than 35,000 PV power plants are currently in operation. In order to express the nonlinear power output of the PV module with respect to the hourly global horizontal irradiance derived from satellite images, this study employed the Gompertz model, which is composed of three parameters and the sigmoid equation. The nonphysical behavior of the Gompertz model within the low solar irradiation range was corrected by combining a linear equation with the same gradient at the conjoint point. The overall fitness of Linear-Gompertz regression to the 242 PV power plants representing the country was R2 = 0.85 and nRMSE = 0.09. The Gompertz model coefficients showed normal distributions and equivariance of standard deviations of less than 15% by year and by season. Therefore, it can be conjectured that the Linear-Gompertz model represents the whole country’s PV system performance curve. In addition, the Gompertz coefficient C, which controls the growth rate of the curve, showed a strong correlation with the capacity factor, such that the regression equation for the capacity factor could be derived as a function of the three Gompertz model coefficients with a fitness of R2 = 0.88. This work was conducted under the framework of the Research and Development Program of the Korea Institute of Energy Research (C0-2407). MDPI https://doi.org/10.3390/en13040781 http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/69859 |
| spellingShingle | Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance Vilanova, Alba Photovoltaic system performance Power output prediction Satellite-derived global horizontal irradiance |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance |
| title_full | Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance |
| title_fullStr | Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance |
| title_short | Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance |
| title_sort | Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance |
| topic | Photovoltaic system performance Power output prediction Satellite-derived global horizontal irradiance |
| topic_facet | Photovoltaic system performance Power output prediction Satellite-derived global horizontal irradiance |
| url | https://doi.org/10.3390/en13040781 http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/69859 |