A factor model of term structure slopes in eurocurrency markets

This paper departs from previous research in dealing with dimensionality reduction in the space of international term structure slopes. Recent empirical work has documented the existence of information in the slope of the term structure which is relevant to forecast future changes in economic activi...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Novales Cinca, Alfonso Santiago; Domínguez Irastorza, Emilio
Format: Report
Publication date:2002
Country:España
Institution:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repository:Docta Complutense
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/64514
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/64514
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:E37
E43
Term structure of interest rates
Term structure slope
Principal components
Eurocurrencies
Mercados bursátiles y financieros
Description
Summary:This paper departs from previous research in dealing with dimensionality reduction in the space of international term structure slopes. Recent empirical work has documented the existence of information in the slope of the term structure which is relevant to forecast future changes in economic activity, and it is additional to information in past economic activity, inflation, or in any leading indicator index [see Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991), Stock and Watson (1988), Hardouvelis (1994) and Plosser and Rouwenhorst (1994), among others]. This implies that a good forecasting model of term structure slopes could be helpful to anticipate changes in economic activity with an even longer anticipation.