The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe
This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipi...
| Authors: | ; ; ; |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Status: | Published version |
| Publication date: | 2012 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
| Repository: | Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:recercat.cat:2445/63123 |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Mediterrània (Regió) Previsió del temps Europa Sequeres Canvi climàtic Precipitations (Meteorology) Mediterranean Region Weather forecasting Europe Droughts Climatic change |
| _version_ | 1878740099067281408 |
|---|---|
| author | Bladé, Ileana |
| author2 | Fortuny Almiñana, Didac Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van Liebmann, Brant |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_browse | Bladé, Ileana Fortuny Almiñana, Didac Liebmann, Brant Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van |
| author_facet | Bladé, Ileana Fortuny Almiñana, Didac Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van Liebmann, Brant |
| author_role | author |
| collection | Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
| description | This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | ES_cd6b160a724efd9af9c8cffc83af031b |
| institution | Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
| instname_str | Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
| network_acronym_str | ES |
| network_name_str | España |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:recercat.cat:2445/63123 |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publishDateSort | 2012 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| publisherStr | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| reponame_str | Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
| spelling | The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe Bladé, Ileana Fortuny Almiñana, Didac Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van Liebmann, Brant Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Mediterrània (Regió) Previsió del temps Europa Sequeres Canvi climàtic Precipitations (Meteorology) Mediterranean Region Weather forecasting Europe Droughts Climatic change This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections. American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123 |
| spellingShingle | The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe Bladé, Ileana Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Mediterrània (Regió) Previsió del temps Europa Sequeres Canvi climàtic Precipitations (Meteorology) Mediterranean Region Weather forecasting Europe Droughts Climatic change |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
| title_full | The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
| title_fullStr | The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
| title_short | The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
| title_sort | The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe |
| topic | Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Mediterrània (Regió) Previsió del temps Europa Sequeres Canvi climàtic Precipitations (Meteorology) Mediterranean Region Weather forecasting Europe Droughts Climatic change |
| topic_facet | Precipitacions (Meteorologia) Mediterrània (Regió) Previsió del temps Europa Sequeres Canvi climàtic Precipitations (Meteorology) Mediterranean Region Weather forecasting Europe Droughts Climatic change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/63123 |