The impact of the generation mix on electricity market prices: a comparative analysis at European level
The goal of this thesis is to investigate the impact of non-programmable renewable energy generation mix on Italian and Spanish electricity markets by studying electricity price in the spot electricity market. Specifically, to investigate whether different energy sources have a different impact on t...
| Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Master's thesis |
| Publication date: | 2020 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repository: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Language: | English |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/188972 |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/188972 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Renewable energy sources Electric utilities -- Prices Energies renovables Empreses elèctriques -- Tarifes Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies |
| _version_ | 1878740052027113472 |
|---|---|
| author | Lorente Gay, Maria |
| author_browse | Lorente Gay, Maria |
| author_facet | Lorente Gay, Maria |
| author_role | author |
| collection | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| description | The goal of this thesis is to investigate the impact of non-programmable renewable energy generation mix on Italian and Spanish electricity markets by studying electricity price in the spot electricity market. Specifically, to investigate whether different energy sources have a different impact on the price, whether and or how much this is varying from different market zones and whether the impact is on general, daily-basis or maybe rather on an hourly basis. To detect the impact on electricity prices, it is followed a consolidated methodology adopted by Clò et al. [1] and developed an empirical analysis for Italy’s commercial markets and for the whole Spanish market by using a multivariate regression. It is considered daily averaged data for the renewable generation mix (specifically solar and wind) and spot electricity price from the respective day-ahead markets for the whole year 2018. As a secondary studio the impact on electricity prices in Italy is analysed by using hourly data. The results obtained support the hypothesis that rising zonal loads tend in general to raise zonal market prices based on the data from 2018. The intensity of this effect is pronounced with varying intensity. In Italy the lowest effect is in the North, with an impact of 1.19 €/MWh increase for each 1000 MWh of demand. The highest effect is found in the islands, reaching a value of 25.11 €/MWh in Sicily. In Spain, there is a low impact of load, with a value of only 0.045 €/MWh. It is interesting to stress how the impacts of photovoltaics and wind vary across Italian zone. While both prove to have in general a decreasing impact, on the electricity spot price, wind is the main driver of the electricity price reduction in the southern zonal areas whereas solar has a more significant decreasing impact on the northern zone prices. Eventually, Central North is the zone with the highest impact of both renewable sources. In Spain, no evidence is found for photovoltaics for electricity price reduction. But, on the other hand, an increase of 1 GWh of wind decreases the Spanish electricity price by 1.42 €/MWh. The results obtained also show for both Italy and Spain the assumption of high correlation between the price of gas and electricity: an increase of 1 €/MWh of gas price causes statistically an electricity price increase between 0.90 €/MWh and 1.73 €/MWh in Italy (depending on the zone) as well as an increase of 1.76 €/MWh in Spain. Compared to the daily data case, results of the secondary analysis show that solar comes out significant in all zones of Italy. Energy from solar panels is obtained only a few hours a day, therefore it turns out that the impact seems to be stronger on an hourly basis. However, wind has rather a daily impact, being wind generation more constant from day to day also not having such a plausible difference between hours as solar. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | masterThesis |
| id | ES_ccb324c48dd157cce8d2fb1d7ec704f7 |
| institution | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| instname_str | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | ES |
| network_name_str | España |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/188972 |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya |
| publisherStr | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya |
| reponame_str | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| spelling | The impact of the generation mix on electricity market prices: a comparative analysis at European level Lorente Gay, Maria Renewable energy sources Electric utilities -- Prices Energies renovables Empreses elèctriques -- Tarifes Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies The goal of this thesis is to investigate the impact of non-programmable renewable energy generation mix on Italian and Spanish electricity markets by studying electricity price in the spot electricity market. Specifically, to investigate whether different energy sources have a different impact on the price, whether and or how much this is varying from different market zones and whether the impact is on general, daily-basis or maybe rather on an hourly basis. To detect the impact on electricity prices, it is followed a consolidated methodology adopted by Clò et al. [1] and developed an empirical analysis for Italy’s commercial markets and for the whole Spanish market by using a multivariate regression. It is considered daily averaged data for the renewable generation mix (specifically solar and wind) and spot electricity price from the respective day-ahead markets for the whole year 2018. As a secondary studio the impact on electricity prices in Italy is analysed by using hourly data. The results obtained support the hypothesis that rising zonal loads tend in general to raise zonal market prices based on the data from 2018. The intensity of this effect is pronounced with varying intensity. In Italy the lowest effect is in the North, with an impact of 1.19 €/MWh increase for each 1000 MWh of demand. The highest effect is found in the islands, reaching a value of 25.11 €/MWh in Sicily. In Spain, there is a low impact of load, with a value of only 0.045 €/MWh. It is interesting to stress how the impacts of photovoltaics and wind vary across Italian zone. While both prove to have in general a decreasing impact, on the electricity spot price, wind is the main driver of the electricity price reduction in the southern zonal areas whereas solar has a more significant decreasing impact on the northern zone prices. Eventually, Central North is the zone with the highest impact of both renewable sources. In Spain, no evidence is found for photovoltaics for electricity price reduction. But, on the other hand, an increase of 1 GWh of wind decreases the Spanish electricity price by 1.42 €/MWh. The results obtained also show for both Italy and Spain the assumption of high correlation between the price of gas and electricity: an increase of 1 €/MWh of gas price causes statistically an electricity price increase between 0.90 €/MWh and 1.73 €/MWh in Italy (depending on the zone) as well as an increase of 1.76 €/MWh in Spain. Compared to the daily data case, results of the secondary analysis show that solar comes out significant in all zones of Italy. Energy from solar panels is obtained only a few hours a day, therefore it turns out that the impact seems to be stronger on an hourly basis. However, wind has rather a daily impact, being wind generation more constant from day to day also not having such a plausible difference between hours as solar. Outgoing Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya https://hdl.handle.net/2117/188972 |
| spellingShingle | The impact of the generation mix on electricity market prices: a comparative analysis at European level Lorente Gay, Maria Renewable energy sources Electric utilities -- Prices Energies renovables Empreses elèctriques -- Tarifes Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies |
| title | The impact of the generation mix on electricity market prices: a comparative analysis at European level |
| title_full | The impact of the generation mix on electricity market prices: a comparative analysis at European level |
| title_fullStr | The impact of the generation mix on electricity market prices: a comparative analysis at European level |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of the generation mix on electricity market prices: a comparative analysis at European level |
| title_short | The impact of the generation mix on electricity market prices: a comparative analysis at European level |
| title_sort | The impact of the generation mix on electricity market prices: a comparative analysis at European level |
| topic | Renewable energy sources Electric utilities -- Prices Energies renovables Empreses elèctriques -- Tarifes Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies |
| topic_facet | Renewable energy sources Electric utilities -- Prices Energies renovables Empreses elèctriques -- Tarifes Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/188972 |