Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions
The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between consumption and credit through a dynamic structural model. With impatient consumers and low income volatility, the dependence of consumption to consumer credit is a proxy of credit supply, opposing the usual interpretation. In...
| Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Master's thesis |
| Status: | Published version |
| Publication date: | 2021 |
| Country: | Brasil |
| Institution: | USP |
| Repository: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
| Language: | English |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:teses.usp.br:tde-26072021-095242 |
| Online Access: | https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-26072021-095242/ |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Consumo Consumption Credit Crédito Escolha doméstica intertemporal Intertemporal household choice |
| _version_ | 1878767337676472320 |
|---|---|
| author | Caleman, Bruno de Queiroz |
| author_browse | Caleman, Bruno de Queiroz |
| author_facet | Caleman, Bruno de Queiroz |
| author_role | author |
| collection | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
| description | The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between consumption and credit through a dynamic structural model. With impatient consumers and low income volatility, the dependence of consumption to consumer credit is a proxy of credit supply, opposing the usual interpretation. In this case, deregulation on credit markets would enhance the predictive power of consumer credit. However, with less impatient consumers and increased income volatility, more credit supply reduce the dependence of consumption to consumer credit. This theoretical evidence shows that there is ambiguity in interpreting the predictability of aggregate consumption, and understanding dependence of consumption to credit as a measure of credit constraints might be misleading. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | masterThesis |
| id | BR_f1cc8df875c6d77c5b49bda10faaad60 |
| institution | USP |
| instname_str | Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | BR |
| network_name_str | Brasil |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:teses.usp.br:tde-26072021-095242 |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
| publisherStr | Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
| reponame_str | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
| spelling | Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions Previsibilidade do consumo: o papel das condições de crédito Caleman, Bruno de Queiroz Consumo Consumption Credit Crédito Escolha doméstica intertemporal Intertemporal household choice The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between consumption and credit through a dynamic structural model. With impatient consumers and low income volatility, the dependence of consumption to consumer credit is a proxy of credit supply, opposing the usual interpretation. In this case, deregulation on credit markets would enhance the predictive power of consumer credit. However, with less impatient consumers and increased income volatility, more credit supply reduce the dependence of consumption to consumer credit. This theoretical evidence shows that there is ambiguity in interpreting the predictability of aggregate consumption, and understanding dependence of consumption to credit as a measure of credit constraints might be misleading. O objetivo desta dissertação é investigar a relação entre consumo e crédito por meio de um modelo estrutural dinâmico. Com consumidores impacientes e baixa volatilidade da renda, a dependência do consumo em relação ao crédito para consumo é uma proxy da oferta de crédito, opondo-se a interpretação usual. Nesse caso, a desregulamentação dos mercados de crédito aumentaria o poder preditivo do crédito. No entanto, com consumidores menos impacientes e maior volatilidade da renda, mais oferta de crédito reduz a dependência do consumo em relação ao crédito para consumo. Essa evidência teórica mostra que há ambigüidade na interpretação da previsibilidade do consumo agregado, e entender a dependência do consumo em relação ao crédito como uma medida das restrições de crédito pode ser incorreto. Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-26072021-095242/ |
| spellingShingle | Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions Caleman, Bruno de Queiroz Consumo Consumption Credit Crédito Escolha doméstica intertemporal Intertemporal household choice |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions |
| title_full | Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions |
| title_fullStr | Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions |
| title_short | Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions |
| title_sort | Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions |
| topic | Consumo Consumption Credit Crédito Escolha doméstica intertemporal Intertemporal household choice |
| topic_facet | Consumo Consumption Credit Crédito Escolha doméstica intertemporal Intertemporal household choice |
| url | https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-26072021-095242/ |