Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
In long-lived species, such as seabirds, immature survival is the most important life history parameter after adult survival. The assessment of immature survival has often been difficult due to extended periods in which young birds remain unobservable at sea. This study presents results on survival...
| Authors: | ; ; ; ; |
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| Format: | Article |
| Status: | Published version |
| Publication date: | 2019 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Fundación para el Fomento de la Investigación Sanitaria y Biomédica de la Comunitat Valenciana (FISABIO) |
| Repository: | r-FISABIO. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:fisabio.fundanetsuite.com:p13243 |
| Online Access: | https://fisabio.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones/13243 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Annual survival Cormack-Jolly-Seber models first-year survival juvenile survival partial detectability recapture probability |
| Summary: | In long-lived species, such as seabirds, immature survival is the most important life history parameter after adult survival. The assessment of immature survival has often been difficult due to extended periods in which young birds remain unobservable at sea. This study presents results on survival of immature Common Murre (Uria aalge) obtained from an extensive mark-recapture study of a large colony at Stora Karlso in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. This colony, in contrast with other colonies, has the unique feature that many 1-year-old birds return to the colony (12%). Between 2006 and 2016, 28,930 chicks were marked at fledging, of which 5,493 individuals were later resighted in the colony. Annual survival and recapture probabilities were estimated using Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber models with four age classes for survival probability, and recapture probability being age and time dependent. Informative prior distributions were used to correct partial observability problems in older age classes (observed at breeding ledges). The estimated survival probability of 1-year-old birds was 0.53 (95% CI = 0.49-0.58), 2-year-old birds was 0.87 (0.79-0.96), 3-year-old birds was 0.96 (0.90-0.99), and 4-to-10-year old bird survival probability was 0.63 (0.61-0.64). Survival estimates for younger age classes were consistent with previous studies. Several biological factors may contribute to the observed decline in survival for older age classes. |
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